Six questions federal candidates had better have answers to

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With Mark Carney now prime minister, we are, perhaps, days from him heading back to Rideau Hall to trigger the federal election. What the election should boil down to, paraphrasing Democratic strategist James Carville, is: “It’s Trump and the economy, stupid.” In this reality, the candidates must be laser-focused on serious issues with clear policy prescriptions, not campaign slogans and stump speeches.

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So, what are the burning questions for candidates in this pivotal election?

First and foremost, with U.S. President Donald Trump weaponizing uncertainty by employing a seemingly never-ending series of tariff threats, not to mention his bullying and annexation rhetoric, how will you deal with Trump personally? How will you react to Trump’s expanding list of “trade issues” that, in addition to a phantom flood of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the U.S. from Canada, now seems to include the GST, supply management, aluminum and steel exports, which somehow threaten American security and defence spending.

With respect to his 25 per cent tariffs, do you support dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs, including export taxes on exports critical to the United States? Would you eliminate NAFTA access for U.S. firms to government procurement in Canada and restrict defence procurement for American firms?

Second, as Canada struggles with weak growth propped up by high immigration before Trump’s tariff attacks, what are your plans to boost our anemic growth and tackle our low productivity? What is your plan to diversify markets for Canadian exports such as potash, critical minerals and oil and gas? How do we get more oil and natural gas to east and west coast ports for export? Are you willing to simplify and reduce regulations so that we can actually build new mines, new pipelines and new transport infrastructure? How will you ensure that internal trade barriers are eliminated within six months to help offset the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs?

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Third, with high deficits and rising debt, we have little fiscal capacity to invest in growth and to help cushion the impact of tariffs, let alone to meet our NATO commitments. Having depleted our fiscal resiliency, we are now extremely vulnerable for when the next shock or tariff-induced recession hits. What are your plans to establish a clear and credible fiscal anchor to establish fiscal discipline and reassure financial markets? How will you reduce the deficit and still meet your commitments to invest in growth and to lower taxes?

Fourth, with the U.S. no longer a reliable partner in defence, what is your plan to detect, deter and defend against increased Russian, Chinese and now possibly American activity in the Arctic? With Trump turning his back on Western allies and their security — Ukraine is such a shocking example — where do you stand on rapidly meeting, or exceeding, our NATO defence spending commitments and on what timeline? What are the implications for Canada of a NATO without America?

Fifth, with America eviscerating the rules-based international order, where does Canada find new friends, new markets, new security partners and new alliances with like-minded countries in Europe and Asia such as Japan? How would you build these new relationships?

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Sixth, with the likelihood of a tariff-induced recession and large layoffs, what is your plan to help workers and businesses during this challenging and painful transition, recognizing that this is a very different shock than the pandemic, where the government overshot massively on the scale of its supports?

In the 1972 political satire “The Candidate,” Bill McKay, a U.S. Senate candidate who was thought to have no chance of winning, suddenly won. In the last scene of the movie, the character, played by Robert Redford, turns dazedly to his campaign manager and asks, “What do we do now?”

With the stakes higher than they have been in generations, we should make sure the party that wins this crucial election knows exactly what to do now and how to deliver on it.

Kevin Lynch was Clerk of the Privy Council and vice-chair of BMO Financial Group. Paul Deegan, CEO of Deegan Public Strategies, was an executive at BMO and CN.

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